How Oil Traders Saw the Ceasefire Coming, Before the Headlines Hit

Why the tape told the truth while the world braced for chaos

Monday, June 23, 8:00 p.m.

It feels like the world changed a dozen times since last week’s letter. Missiles. Markets. Cable news in meltdown mode.

But if you actually watched the money, not the headlines, you saw the story play out long before the politicians started taking victory laps.

Last week, I told you to watch oil.

If the real fireworks came—if this Middle East mess got out of hand—you would see it first at the pump.

That was the risk for Trump. Not some far-off battlefield, but right here in your wallet.

And guess what? The tape never lied. The market was telling the truth all along.

Six Days That Felt Like Six Months

June 17: Trump talks tough but holds back, pushing for an end to Israel-Iran fighting.

June 18 to 20: The headlines get wild. Missile strikes. Rumors of escalation. The whole region on edge.

June 21: Everything changes. U.S. jets hit Iranian nuclear sites. The world holds its breath. Oil climbs from $75 to $78, but never spikes.

Iran hits back at a U.S. base. Israel keeps pounding Tehran. Pundits lose their minds.

June 22: A sliver of hope. Iran signals it will take a U.S.-brokered ceasefire.

June 23: Markets rally and oil drops during the session. After the close, Trump announces a “complete and total ceasefire.” Everyone claims credit.

If you were waiting for the “big one”—the $100 oil, wild inflation, or global panic—it never showed up.

Oil Was the Canary. It Didn’t Panic

This is where the real money was made, or saved.

When those U.S. strikes hit, most expected oil to go parabolic.

Instead, oil drifted up. Seventy-five dollars, then seventy-eight. No melt-up. No panic bid.

That was your first clue. The traders on the inside, the ones moving real capital, never believed this war would last.

They saw the endgame before the rest of the world could even spell “ceasefire.”

If you chased the fear, you overpaid. If you trusted the tape, you stayed level.

Silver: The Wild Card

Last week, I said silver was “a rodeo bull on Adderall.” You saw it: down three percent from all-time highs, shaking out the weak hands.

But today? Big upside bets are pouring into the options market. When pros pile in, it means something.

Silver isn’t done. The rodeo isn’t over. Watch for a jolt when the crowd least expects it.

Why This Is the Best Outcome for Trump—and for You

Forget the doom. This outcome is as good as it gets for Trump, and for Americans tired of seeing gas prices swing with every headline.

No new war. No one hundred dollar oil. No runaway inflation.

Trump kept his “no new wars” promise, showed force when it mattered, and didn’t spook his base or the warhawks.

That’s a tightrope walk most presidents can’t pull off.

All the headlines were negative; crisis, escalation, World War Three.

But the market never bought it. The tape told the real story.

What to Watch Now

Don’t blink. If oil climbs again, it means the “peace” is temporary. That’s when the risk of inflation and Trump’s political headache comes roaring back.

If silver keeps attracting big option buyers, that’s your clue volatility isn’t over.

If you see defense stocks fading while consumer names catch a bid, that’s confirmation the market is breathing easier.

Remember. The tape never lies. The market was telling the truth all along.

Keep your eyes on the money. Ignore the noise.

The real clues are always right there if you know where to look.

Trade smart. Until tomorrow,

Josh Belanger